Production Forecasting with Uncertainty Quantification

Duration - 01/01/96 - 30/04/99

Funding - Funded by the European Union Fourth Framework Hydrocarbon Reservoir Programme.

Co-ordinator - Netherlands Institute of Applied Geoscience TNO - National Geological Survey (Netherlands).

Research Partners

Summary - PUNQ is aimed at the further development of a methodology to quantify and reduce the uncertainty in production forecasts of hydrocarbon reservoirs. Subsequently, this quantified uncertainty is to be used in economic risk assessment. Results of this methodology can eventually be inverted to design an optimal data acquisition programme for optimal, cost-effective risk reduction of hydrocarbon developments.

Fault Analysis Group research involves a quantitative assessment (i.e. prior probability estimates) of the main structural geological parameters in faulted clastic hydrocarbon reservoirs and the development of methods for their inclusion in flow models, as well as selective studies of the stochastic and flow modelling of faults. One of our principal responsibilities is the production of the PUNQ Complex Model, with our partners at the Norwegian Computing Centre, Imperial College London and Delft University. The structure and sedimentology of the PUNQ Complex Model is that of a typical NorthSea Brent reservoir. The model represents the main field-size dataset for testing the application of inversion and optimisation methods in this and forthcoming research projects. Details of the PUNQ Complex Model are provided at the Norwegian Computing Centre PUNQ Complex Model web site.

Follow the links to access:

The main technical objectives of the PUNQ project.

The work contents for the PUNQ project.

The main deliverables of the PUNQ project.

Contact: Tom Manzocchi
Tel: +353 1 716 2605